Is Music’s Long Tail Really Dead?

Posted on 19. May, 2009 by refe in NEWS

There has been a lot of noise across the internet recently about a new study by UK licensing organization PRS that seems to question the validity of the Long Tail theory. You’ve probably seen all sorts of catchy blog headlines declaring the ‘Long Tail’ deceased – the topic has quickly become the music industry’s Ivy Bean.

What is the Long Tail?
Bear with me here, this gets a little heady: The Long Tail theory suggests that a small number of products (best-selling books, hit songs, etc.) dominate the market. That’s the ‘head.’ Retailers profit from selling a large number of these relatively few products by selling them at a premium.

The Long Tail Theory
The Long Tail Theory: Green represents the ‘head,’ and yellow represents the ‘tail.’

 The rest of the products in the market (b-sides, live or unreleased tracks, niche products) make up the ‘long tail.’ If the cost of manufacturing and distribution is low enough, these products can actually be more profitable than the hit’s by selling fewer copies of a larger number of products. At least that’s what the theory suggests. Retailers like Amazon.com have built empires on this concept. A huge portion of their sales come from obscure titles that you can’t find in physical, brick and mortar bookstores.

Why should we care?
The implications of this for the independent music industry are huge. With the advent of digital technology, the cost of manufacturing and distributing music has been reduced to practically zero. That means that online retailers can offer tracks that brick and mortar stores could never afford to offer, such as obscure indie bands with no big label push behind them. More importantly, that means that those retailers can actually make a profit by doing so. For the first time in the history of music, it may actually make business sense for retailers to carry indie music!

New study questions Long Tail theory
As I mentioned above, the PRS recently conducted a study along with online music tracker Big Champagne that seems to suggest that the Long Tail theory is not proving true in the music industry. The study claims that the most popular songs on the traditional charts are also the most shared files on the internet. That could mean that the Long Tail – the large number of non-hits and less popular tracks available through file-sharing sites – does not have as much potential to be profitable after all.

Is the Long Tail theory really dead?
Probably not. In fact, almost definitely not. There are several things wrong with this study. First of all, this is clearly a case of a couple of organizations conducting internal ‘research’ and spinning the results to support their own interests. Big Champagne monitors file sharing. As Mike Masnick puts it, “The more the industry embraces file sharing, the more business Big Champagne gets.” Also quoting Masnick, the PRS represents the publishers, not the labels. The PRS “is looking to establish a new set of draconian compulsory licensing system, where you could still make use of file sharing, but where it would (perhaps with Big Champagne’s help) get paid for every download through some sort of system, whether sharing in the ad revenue or through subscription fees.”

All this study really proves is that popular music is popular. Remember – whether we’re dealing with the internet or the physical retail world we’re still talking about the same music industry. Is it really a big surprise that popular music would be popular across the board? This misses the entire point. Long Tail doesn’t ignore the ‘head,’ it simply suggests that the tail can be profitable as well. In that way, the study actually supports the theory, rather than disproving it.

The solution. Or at least, *A* solution.
In my mind, our response to this study should be to realize that there is a huge opportunity out there to capitalize on this untapped music. The way that we can do this is by providing the same service that the music industry is supposed to have been providing all along – find the good stuff and make sure people know about it.  All the great music that’s floating around on the internet and people are still choosing simply to download the tracks at the top of the charts? Why? Because someone is telling them too.

The music industry is dropping the ball. Labels are supposed to exist to take talent and grow it into success. The quick buck of a top forty hit is obviously not conducive to that model, but the Long Tail is and the internet has made this possible. The sooner people realize this, the sooner the industry as a whole can move forward.

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One Response to “Is Music’s Long Tail Really Dead?”

  1. jayrope

    19. May, 2009

    I cannot but agree, especially on your conclusions.
    In my own experience traditional media and major labels had built up an infrastructure, that dominates sales by working together exclusively.
    They could survive, if they’d be open enough to look at all the wonderful new music (let’s mention Animal Collective’s recent album success here) and support it the same way they did with their traditional product.

    I would assume, though, that this gap will be left open for all of us to explore, get fascinated, network the good things and eventually take the risk to prefinance something the world would want to discover, if a sufficient infrastructure would tell it to listen.

    Well, good luck, then.